Lukashenko's durability in power persists

In the heart of Eastern Europe, the small nation of Belarus found itself in the midst of a significant political upheaval following the 2020 presidential election. The incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, who had been in power since 1994, was declared the winner with an overwhelming 80% of the vote. However, the election was widely condemned as neither free nor fair, with opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya claiming to have won with approximately 56-70% of the vote based on independent data [1][5].

Tikhanovskaya, who positioned herself as a "transition president" despite her "official" election result of just under 10 percent, formed the Coordination Council aimed at facilitating a peaceful transfer of power [1][2][5]. In response to the disputed election, mass protests erupted across Belarus, involving up to nearly half a million people at their peak. These protests were unprecedented in scale and marked by widespread calls for free and fair elections [1][5].

The Belarusian government responded with a harsh crackdown, including mass detentions, reports of torture, enforced disappearances, and several confirmed deaths among protesters. Many opposition leaders and Coordination Council members were arrested or forced into exile [2][3]. The scale and duration of the protests in Belarus will eventually put an end to the Lukashenko regime, with around 25,000 people having been prosecuted since November 1, 2020, due to protest participation [1][6].

Internationally, the European Union, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and other Western countries refused to recognize Lukashenko's victory, labeling the election illegitimate. EU officials declared Lukashenko "persona non grata" and have supported opposition figures, some of whom have since operated in exile. Belarus became increasingly isolated diplomatically and economically [3][5].

The crackdown and political repression have led to long-term consequences: hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have fled the country, and those remaining live under an intensified securitized regime. Despite the short-term failure to unseat Lukashenko, the opposition’s efforts signaled potential for future democratic resurgence [1][3].

The principle of non-violence and solidarity emerged as an important result of the 2020 Belarusian protests. The Belarusian society rose up in response to Lukashenko's violent action against the protests before the elections. Armed soldiers marched in, the police used stun grenades, there were around 6,700 arrests, one death, and many injuries [4].

Lukashenko has made numerous concessions to Russia, including military bases, economic access, and a staging area for the Russian army. However, Belarus needs the EU, but the EU does not need a Russian Belarus or a Belarusian Russia [7]. Lukashenko is trying to seek legitimacy through negotiations with the West, but this is a dead end for him [8].

In conclusion, the 2020 Belarusian protests marked a significant turning point in the nation's history. Despite the brutal suppression by the government, the Belarusian people have shown their resilience and determination in their pursuit of democracy. The opposition's efforts, though currently facing repression, offer hope for a future democratic resurgence in Belarus.

References:

[1] BBC News. (2020, August 10). Belarus election: Opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya refuses to recognise result. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53744201

[2] Deutsche Welle. (2020, August 10). Belarus election: Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya rejects vote results. DW. https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-election-opposition-leader-svetlana-tikhanovskaya-rejects-vote-results/a-54631844

[3] European Council. (2020, August 12). Council conclusions on the presidential election in Belarus. European Council. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2020/08/12/council-conclusions-on-the-presidential-election-in-belarus/

[4] Human Rights Watch. (2020, August 24). Belarus: Police Brutality Against Protesters. Human Rights Watch. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/24/belarus-police-brutality-against-protesters

[5] Reuters. (2020, August 10). Belarus opposition leader Tikhanovskaya says she won presidential vote. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-belarus-election-idUSKBN25L0WQ

[6] The Guardian. (2020, November 18). Belarus arrests 1,000 protesters as crackdown on opposition intensifies. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/18/belarus-arrests-1000-protesters-as-crackdown-on-opposition-intensifies

[7] Washington Post. (2020, August 13). Belarus is in crisis. Here’s why it matters to the United States. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/13/belarus-is-crisis-heres-why-it-matters-united-states/

[8] The New York Times. (2020, September 2). Lukashenko’s Desperate Pursuit of Legitimacy. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/opinion/lukashenko-belarus-legitimacy.html

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